U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik continues to lead a pack of three potential Republican candidates in next year’s race for New York governor while Gov. Kathy Hochul leads all three at this point by at least 20 points, according to a Siena College poll released Tuesday.
According to the poll, Republican voters strongly favor the North Country congresswoman with 35%, compared to 18% for U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler and 7% for Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, which is similar to last month. None of them have yet to declare any candidacy.
“One year out from a potential primary, two in five Republicans don’t know who they’ll support among Stefanik, Lawler and Blakeman, but Stefanik maintains an early lead, 17 points ahead of Lawler, who is 11 points ahead of Blakeman,” Siena College Research Institute Director Don Levy said.
Hochul, running for a second full term, leads Blakeman 44-19%, Stefanik 47-24% and Lawler 44-24%, the poll found.
“Recognizing that 16 months in politics is many lifetimes away, a first look at how New York voters feel about potential gubernatorial matchups shows that partisanship wins out. Hochul leads Lawler by 20 points, Stefanik by 23 points and Blakeman by 25 points,” Levy said.
Hochul is also strongly favored among any potential Democratic challengers, according to the poll, garnering 49% of support from Democratic voters, whereas Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado gets 12% and U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres gets 10%.
“While the early leads seem large, Hochul is not hitting the ‘magic’ 51% mark against any of these opponents, and in each matchup, between a quarter and a third of voters wasn’t able to choose between the two candidates,” Levy said.
Hochul’s favorability rating currently stands at 42-47%, down slightly from 44-46% in May. Her job approval rating is 50-45%, also narrowly changed from last month. Currently, 37% are prepared to re-elect Hochul, while 55% want “someone else,” the poll said.
Voters also have positive support for some of the state’s high-profile legislation that state lawmakers passed at the end of the legislative session earlier this month.
“While it doesn’t have the same level of support as several other less controversial bills that passed the Legislature at the end of session, voters support what some call medical aid in dying and others call physician assisted suicide, 54-28%,” Levy said. “It has better than two-to-one support from Democrats and independents, and Republicans support it 48-39%,” Levy said. “It has support from at least 53% of voters from every region of the state, and at least 54% support from young, middle-aged and older voters. Jewish voters, 53-30%, and Catholic voters, 52-30%, support it at virtually equal levels.”
Levy also said that mandating state agencies to disclose artificial intelligence usage, requiring audio and video surveillance in state prisons, establishing a new utility consumer advocate and allowing the attorney general to sue companies over unfair or abusive practices all enjoy support from at least two-thirds of New Yorkers.
This Siena College poll was conducted June 23-26 among 800 registered voters in New York and has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.