The next U.S. census isn’t until 2030, but there’s already an important battle brewing in Washington, D.C. that could lead to a significant undercount in New York, a state that’s already lost 20 congressional seats since the 1940s and could lose more.

The fight is over whether to count people who aren’t citizens in the decennial census.

This is a critical issue considering the federal government allocates money to states based on population. Whether non-citizens are counted or not, or have legal status or not, they will get sick and go to the emergency room, they will drive on roads, they will take public transportation, and they will use schools – all of which costs money. 

Census expert Jeff Wice, distinguished adjunct professor and senior fellow at the N.Y. Elections, Census & Redistricting Institute at New York Law School, spoke with Capital Tonight about the “Equal Representation Act," which could be voted on in Congress as soon as this summer. 

According to Wice, the legislation would “require the Census Bureau to not only add a census citizenship question but also determine the reapportionment of Congressional districts among the states by using a citizen-only count.”

Wice concludes that the bill runs counter to the U.S. Constitution’s mandate that apportionment be based on the whole number of persons counted regardless of their status.

Under the current census rules which allow non-citizens to be counted, New York is projected to lose two congressional seats by 2030.

A separate federal court complaint seeking to limit the reapportionment base to citizens only includes a reference to how two New York state congressional districts are attributable to undocumented persons. If that estimate is accurate and if the Equal Representation Act is passed, the state could lose four seats in 2030, from 26 seats to 22.

According to Wice, the issue is exacerbated by the possibility of a citizenship question on the census, which could depress the count, making for a perfect storm that would take the state back decades in congressional delegation strength.

EDITOR'S NOTE: This story has been edited to reflect that the loss of New York congressional seats in 2030 is a projection.