New York Republican leaders hope a renewed energy for the party with the start of President Donald Trump's second term will continue to grow in the state as they keep eye on the 2026 gubernatorial race.
Members of the Grand Old Party said Monday they have high expectations for Trump to deliver on campaign promises to secure the borders, cut inflation and more — and that national attention on issues important to voters will give the party a future boost.
"Donald Trump has been courting the working class of America, and they came in solidly for him," New York Republican Party chair Ed Cox told Spectrum News 1. "A very successful Trump administration, which takes care of the border issues, that we renew the present tax regime and improve it with respect to New York ... would be very helpful to us in the 2026 election."
Cox expects Trump to improve party gains in the state if Congress delivers on his campaign promises to lower energy costs, lift the State and Local Tax, or SALT, cap and address an influx of migrants coming to the state.
The president has also said he'd kill congestion pricing — something Cox says may be politically popular with New Yorkers — and make it easier to defeat Gov. Kathy Hochul in 2026.
The success of Trump's administration will build, or erode, the party's momentum in deep-blue New York. It's been nearly 20 years since former Gov. George Pataki, New York's last Republican leader, left office. About 6% separated Hochul and Trump's EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, a former Long Island congressman, in 2022.
"I think people in New York still feel it's time for a change and to have a real two-party system by electing a Republican governor," Cox said.
State Republican strategtist Dave Catalfamo said the GOP's firm messaging to fight for lower costs and safer communities is the change the majority of people want to see, regardless of party affiliation.
He doubts Democrats in the Legislature will listen to Hochul's focus on crime and affordability in her budget agenda.
"I see them wanting to spend more and wanting to tax more," Catalfamo said. "Until those elections impact the state Legislature or we're able to have a
Republican governor who's willing to use the power of the governorship, which is immense, to make a change in that, we won't see change."
Cox said he remains confident Trump's administration will be stronger the second time around amid a $2 trillion deficit and multiple foreign wars.
"They're much more difficult than the problems he had in his first administration," Cox said. "...But he's had four years to think about it. He had good time to look at all the appointees ... So it's going to be a much sturdier administration."
And as Hochul and legislative leaders fight over tax cuts or increases in the budget, Republicans said they hope voters will see a disconnect in the state Legislature that could swing the next gubernatorial race to the right.
But 2026 marks a year of midterm elections — and a change in party is most often met with backlash against it.
"If President Trump overreaches in a conservative direction, if he does things that are unpopular with New Yorkers, they might be more appreciative of having a Democrat to sort of counteract at the state level what he's doing," said Ian Reifowitz, a history professor at SUNY Empire State University. "If what he does proves popular for New Yorkers, that's a different story."