BUFFALO, N.Y. -- Following a Wednesday meeting with Canada's provincial and territorial premiers, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said "everything is on the table" as the country prepares to defend against economic threats from the Trump administration which takes office next week.
However, Empire Center for Public Policy Research Director Ken Girardin does not take seriously suggestions Canada would cut off energy resources to the United States.
"The Canadians would lose revenue if they made it harder or stopped electricity from coming over to the U.S. side of the border but they'd also lose because periodically the power flows the other way. They're able to operate their grid as efficiently as they do because they know that if they're in a pinch they can get power from the New York side of the border and from other neighboring interconnect regions," Girardin said.
Still, he said even conversation about limiting or restricting trade from either side of the border is a losing proposition for both.
"The things companies hate when they're looking at the economics of a business plan more than anything else is uncertainty and any time you have the political class talking about making radical changes or creating new obstructions to the flow of goods and services, that's adding to uncertainty and it's making future investment harder and sometimes impossible," Girardin said.
Many observers believe Trump, who previously negotiated the U.S. Mexico Canada trade agreement with Trudeau, is using the threat of tariffs to begin conversations and tweak the deal again.
"Our current trade agreement between the U.S. and Canada isn't perfect. There are some provisions that arguably, unduly favor the Canadians, particularly with dairy products so I understand where the Trump administration would be coming from trying to bring the Canadians back to the table but the threat of tariffs isn't the way to do it," Girardin said.
The public policy analyst said a long economic standoff could have an acute impact on parts of New York State.
"The economies, particularly around Buffalo and around the North Country, are heavily intertwined with Canadians, particularly when it comes to local supply chains so the sooner this bluster about tariffs and retaliation goes away, the better for all the people trying to make plans and do hiring and invest in those parts of New York," he said.