Despite still running the show in Albany, Democrats have lost their veto-proof supermajority in the state Senate while appearing to have maintained their supermajority in the Assembly. Gov. Kathy Hochul seems to have been relatively successful in helping to avoid a repeat of embarrassing 2022 congressional losses in New York, and Proposition 1 passed.
“Good election for the governor, status quo for the Legislature,” Blair Horner, executive director of Good Government Group NYPIRG, said about sums it up.
He did say though, that the results send a message.
“Every time there’s an election there’s a relatively small number of them that face tough races and a relatively smaller number that actually get beat and that’s what happened in 2024,” he said. “From the Republicans’ perspective though, there are glimmers of hope, from the Democrats’ perspective there are flashing signs of warning.”
Horner stressed those warning signs for Democrats are tied to a disappointing statewide performance by Vice President Kamala Harris.
Perhaps feeling that Republican hope most keenly is state Sen. George Borrello, who led Senate Republicans' campaign arm as they eliminated Democrats’ supermajority in the chamber by picking up a seat in Brooklyn.
“Not only did we make gains and expand our conference but we broke that supermajority which I think is going to be to the benefit of all New Yorkers,” he said.
Borrello expressed optimism about speculation that the 2022 and 2024 elections point to a potentially “redder” New York in the coming years.
“I think that most New Yorkers realize that the policies they have seen over the past five years have not made their party better,” he said.
Deputy Senate Majority Leader Mike Gianaris sees it much differently, arguing it was a matter of Democrats staying home rather than voters shifting toward the GOP, and downplaying any shift in the Senate makeup.
“They were able to gain one seat and almost lost a couple of members along the way at a time when the top of the ticket was performing more poorly than it has in 40 years,” he said.
He implored Democrats to adjust their national message and find ways to better address the concerns of working class Americans to get turnout back up to 2020 levels.
“We’re just not focusing on the issues that we need to as a party to convince those people to come out,” he said. “We have to do more to motivate our own voters and speak to the issues they care about, helping make their lives more affordable.”
He did concede, however, that a Trump administration will change the agenda for Democrats in Albany significantly, and not just when it comes to issues like abortion and immigration.
“We’re going to be fighting a rear flank effort for the next four years, and you never know from one day to the next what a Trump administration and a Republican legislature in Washington is likely to do to make life harder for New Yorkers,” he said.
Horner argued that isn’t necessarily all partisan talk. A Trump administration is likely to present significant fiscal policy hurdles for state lawmakers.
“It will probably mean less federal aid for the state of New York and that has impacts on health care policy, the Medicaid program in particular, higher education policy, what to do about things like pell grants, and the cost of dealing with climate damage,” he said.