All 213 seats in the state Legislature are up for election on Tuesday, but due to an insurmountable statewide advantage for Democrats, control of the Senate and Assembly are not up for grabs.

That said, there are still competitive races and signs that the Democrats’ supermajorities could be in jeopardy, as they were two years ago. Democrats have held a supermajority in both the state Assembly and Senate since 2020, the first time either party has had such a degree of dominance in modern times. 

Blair Horner, executive director of good-government group NYPIRG, told Spectrum News 1 that supermajorities held by Democrats in both houses of the state Legislature are best used for political leverage.

“It allows the legislative leaders to rattle the saber,” he said. “To say they’re going to do something if the governor doesn’t do what they want. In negotiations, it could play a big role.”

Their most practical purpose – overriding a veto without relying on Republicans – hasn’t actually been employed against Gov. Kathy Hochul, despite clear opportunities.

“Some of these bills that have passed have passed with overwhelming majorities, and they could have done it,” he said.

As for whether Democrats will retain their supermajorities this year as they barely did in 2022, Shawn Donahue, clinical assistant professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, pointed out that 2022 was an odd year.

Heavy Republican turnout, combined with quirks of a redistricting year, resulted in unusual competitiveness in some districts. That, along with surprising pickups for Republicans in congressional races that year, led many to question if Republicans are gaining on Democrats long-term in New York.

This time around, Donahue said that Democratic enthusiasm will likely result in more solid turnout in typically Democratic areas, and he sees the 100-member supermajority in the Assembly as more safe for Democrats than the supermajority in the Senate.

“I think increased Democratic turnout may help to keep those districts in Democratic hands,” he said.

Democrats are looking to pick up seats in Brooklyn and Albany, and retain control of a seat in the Hudson Valley, where longtime Assemblymember Aileen Gunther is retiring.

In the Senate, Donahue argued, the two-thirds hold may be slightly more in jeopardy. Voters elected a narrow supermajority of 42 Democrats to 21 Republicans in 2022. Now on the defense with one vacancy, they have no wiggle room.

The race to replace state Senator John Mannion, who is running against incumbent Brandon Williams in Central New York's 22nd Congressional District, may be Republicans’ best bet, as Mannion held onto that seat by just 10 votes in 2022.

“That’s a district that has some competitiveness,” Donahue said.

There are other competitive races as well. State Senator Monica Martinez in the 4th District on Long Island is defending her seat against Republican Teresa Bryant, while incumbent Democrat James Skoufis is fending off a challenge from Dorey Houle in the Hudson Valley. He narrowly won last time around.

As for whether that perception in the wake of the 2022 election that Republicans are gaining ground in blue New York is a reality and could result in a more balanced legislature, Horner stressed that Democrats’ massive enrollment advantage in key areas means such a significant shift is likely far off, at the very least.

“Whether or not that changes where the Republican Party starts looking different, or New Yorkers start seeing the world differently, if you look at the patterns of enrollment, Democrats are going to have big majorities in both houses for a while,” he said.