Outside of the race for the White House, the contest for New York’s 22nd Congressional District promises to be one of the most closely watched races in the nation on election night. It’s one of Democrats’ best shots to pick up a seat coast to coast.

The district covers Onondaga and Madison counties, as well as parts of Cayuga, Cortland and Oneida counties, including the cities of Syracuse and Utica. The race pits incumbent Republican Rep. Brandon Williams against Democratic state Sen. John Mannion.

Cook Political Report has the race in the “lean Democrat” column. It’s worth noting, though, that a Spectrum News/Siena College poll the week before the election in 2022 had then Democratic candidate, Francis Conole, up by four points. Williams went on to win by about two points in an election where a forecasted red wave largely failed to materialize, but hit New York state with full force.

For this piece, Williams’ campaign did not respond to repeated requests for an interview, but we used his public statements to juxtapose his positions against our interview with Mannion.

Of the candidates, one has a record in Washington, the other in Albany, but experts say in a presidential election year, voters have their minds on national issues.

Topping the list is abortion. Mannion said he supports protecting abortion rights at the federal level to prevent differences across states.

“I would sign on to the Women’s Health Protection Act, and this is something that’s necessary to assure women across this country aren’t treated differently,” he said.

Williams classifies himself as pro-life, but supports exceptions for rape, incest or to protest the life of a mother. Despite Mannion’s insistence that Williams would sign a national abortion ban – a charge Mannion says comes from reading between the lines on Williams’ positions and his endorsement by the Conservative Party and other organizations – Williams himself has said he would not support such a ban because it would override the will of New York voters.

On immigration, both point fingers over missed legislative opportunities.

Mannion charged that Republicans tanked a short-lived bipartisan bill in the U.S. Senate at the request of former President Donald Trump. He told Spectrum News 1 if elected, he would support similarly bipartisan immigration reform, including more border patrol and immigration court funding.

“It’s going to take political will to work together and get it done. I would have voted 'yes' on that legislation,” he said.

Williams supports stricter enforcement of immigration laws and increased border security, and blames Democrats for not supporting his bill of choice, the Secure the Border Act.

“The progressive left simply refuses to act and stop this crisis at its core,” he told reporters last September.

So what could decide the race?

Grant Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, explained that Williams’ 2022 victory was tied to Gov. Kathy Hochul’s unexpectedly tough election bid as Republicans tied candidates to concerns about public safety in Albany.

Williams even regluarly painted Conole as someone with ties to Hochul, despite Conole having no role in state government. 

This time, he argued that unlike in other congressional races in New York, Williams still can take the Albany route by going after Mannion’s record in the state Senate, especially if he can get voters to consider how Mannion’s decisions impacted them financially.

“Brandon Williams can look to that voting record, particularly focusing on issues of spending and budget,” he said.

On the flip side, Reeher explained Williams is especially vulnerable as a one-term congressman, and the race could come down to if voters feel he is a good fit in "purple" NY-22.

He argued that Williams may be too far right, and doesn’t have as high of a profile in the district or major legislative accomplishments to point to as the area’s former moderate Republican Rep. John Katko.

“He is more conservative and doesn’t have the bills passed, and does not have the activity level in Washington or the District,” he said.

Reeher also stressed that while public safety concerns largely blamed for Democratic losses in 2022 are still on voters' minds, the national focus of the race may mute the impact. He also pointed to the fact that a large cornerstone of that controversy – New York’s 2019 bail reform legislation – took place before Mannion was in office.

The candidates have also sparred over the war in Gaza, with Williams accusing Mannion of not being sufficiently supportive of Israel, a charge Mannion has vehemently denied.