BUFFALO, N.Y. -- The judicial showdown over the Biden administration's student loan forgiveness plan that would cover as much as $20,000 in debt relief to people who received Pell grants and up to $10,000 for other eligible federal borrowers will happen in 2023 with oral arguments scheduled for February.

SUNY Buffalo state economist Fred Floss believes its a toss-up right now whether the program will be struck down.

"Before the last two judges were appointed or three judges were appointed, it would have probably never gotten this far, so there's a change now, particularly in the court, on whether or not the federal government has the right to regulate without specific language in congressional legislation," Floss said.

On top of a lawsuit brought by six Republican-led states challenging the administration's authority to institute the forgiveness plan, the court announced this week it would hear a second case out of Texas. That one involves individual borrowers not eligible for the full sum who argue they did not have a chance to comment on the program before the Department of Education set it in motion.

"That's a whole different political question of how many people are supporting loan forgiveness versus how many people may be upset that they're not getting loan forgiveness so that's all got to play out in the future," Floss said.

He said even if the court strikes down the program, student loan forgiveness is not necessarily dead. Floss believes despite an incoming Republican majority in the House and the filibuster in the Senate, Congress could still take action.

"It seems to me that there will be a lot of political pressure to somehow come up with a fix to do it anyway. It's just going to take a lot longer and it's going to hurt more people because they were expecting this money and now it's not coming for another six months or another year," he said.

In the meantime, the court is blocking the administration from moving forward. Adding to the confusion, the Education Department said a vendor sent out emails last month with an inaccurate subject line indicating millions had already been approved.

Those borrowers are this week receiving another email notifying them while applications have been received, the reviews can't happen yet due to the litigation. 

"I would assume that there's a pretty good chance that if the program goes forward the people who got those approval letters are probably still going to be approved," Floss said.

The  admnistration has extended a repayment pause until June or until the court makes its decision.