Election Day is just days away and the race for New York’s 22nd Congressional District between Democrat Francis Conole and Republican Brandon Williams is one of the most closely watched House contests in the state.

An exclusive Spectrum News 1/Siena College poll released Friday, compared to one released a month ago, provides some insight before votes actually begin being tabulated.

Here are a few takeaways from that poll.

Voters know a lot more about who the candidates are

Being a seat with no incumbent, both Williams and Conole started out with the challenge of name recognition. Even after their respective primary races over the summer, the poll from September found that 55% of voters had no opinion of Conole, while 62% had no opinion of Williams.

The month of campaigning and debates during October has seemed to change that dramatically. The poll Friday found that only 36% had no opinion of Williams while 30% have no opinion of Conole — a 25-point and 26-point swing respectively. 

Independent voters appear to sour on Williams

More knowledge about the candidates means more voters could potentially change their minds from one or the other.

Since the new 22nd District is evenly made up of 36% registered Democrats and 31% Republicans, independent voters will likely be crucial to either candidate’s victory.

The poll from last month found Williams with a commanding lead with independents — 23 points.

The latest poll finds Conole leading with independents by 6 points — a 29-point swing to the Democrat’s favor.

When it comes to favorable view of the candidates, Conole has an even 35% favorable to 35% unfavorable view. Williams has a 38% unfavorable view and 26% favorable view.

Location may be decisive

Since Onondaga County is the population center of the district and includes the city of Syracuse, Onondaga County will be the Democratic candidate’s main base of support. 

A month ago, the poll found Conole leading in the Onondaga and Oswego counties portion of the district, but just barely. By contrast, Williams was leading in the Oneida and Madison counties region — much more a Republican stronghold —  by over 20 points.

Conole’s lead over Williams in the Onondaga/Oswego region in the new poll is up to 16 points while Williams’ lead in the eastern half is now also at 16 points.

The margins the candidates garner in each region will be a significant factor in who ends up ahead.

Presidential politics may also be decisive

Midterm elections are usually tied to a president’s popularity. Had the 22nd District existed in 2020, Biden would’ve won it by 7.4 points. Friday’s poll finds Biden’s favorability rating at 46% — up from 42% in the first poll — while his unfavorability stands at 51% — down from 53%.

President Joe Biden made an appearance in Syracuse last week to discuss the Micron deal and use it as an economic message as the party tries to hold onto control of Congress. Indeed, the day the president visited Syracuse was the first day the new poll was conducted.

When it comes to former President Donald Trump, 38% of voters hold a favorable view of him while 58% have an unfavorable view.

It’s still anybody’s game

Conole took the lead in Friday’s poll — getting 46% of support to Williams 42% — inversing a 5-point lead Williams had in the last poll. Since both polls are within the 5-point margin of error, the fact that the two polls see-sawed the leader underscores the belief that the race is a statistical tie and could well be very close.

The region has had some close congressional races in the last few cycles and the political makeup of the new district ensures it remains a battleground.

It’s not just the congressional race that makes that evident though. A poll of the governor’s race among 22nd District voters was also more or less a tie — with 48% supporting Gov. Kathy Hochul for a full term and 45% backing Republican challenger  Lee Zeldin. That is almost unchanged from last month’s poll, which had Zeldin up 47% to Hochul’s 44%.