Here's the good news: New York's tax revenue surged in May, a year-over-year increase of more than 30% from 12 months ago. It's a potential sign of New York's economic rebound following the shutdown amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
But the not-so-great-news is the sharp rise in revenue for New York could be simply the equivalent of a financial sugar high, and not a guarantee of continued growth as businesses, schools and other public gathering places reopen.
The increase in revenue, too, is also due to the delayed timing of tax payments because of the ongoing pandemic and altered deadlines.
For instance, New York reported the second-largest growth in payments behind California in the fourth quarter of 2020, a rise of 21.9%.
The Urban Institute on Saturday released an economic brief finding that states like New York and California saw signficant increases in their tax revenue this past spring. Both states instituted significant restrictions in order to halt the spread of the coronavirus, and in May rescinded many of those guidelines as more people were vaccinated and the number of new caes and hospitalizations declined.
But the recovery could also be an uneven one for New York after billions of dollars in federal aid is spent.