The construction industry is still dealing with inflation and supply chain issues that started during the COVID-19 pandemic. Associated General Contractors of New York State CEO Mike Elmendorf says that under the tariffs proposed by President Trump, the cost for any kind of construction could further skyrocket. 

“When tariffs go on a material that is sourced from outside the United States, a funny thing happens," Elmendorf said. "In many cases, domestic producers or suppliers of that material raise their price too because they can. Not as much as the tariff, but it sort of, it pushes everything up.” 

Trump has sought to “regain economic independence in the U.S.” through tariffs. The White House says lumber imports could threaten the U.S.'s national security and economic stability. So far, the White House has exempted Canadian lumber from Trump’s global reciprocal tariffs. But later this year, according to a report by the Department of Commerce, lumber tariffs could more than double by September. 

Canadian lumber is one of the most critical imports needed for U.S. construction. According to the National Association of Home Builders, tariffs on Canadian lumber could make it more than $9,000 more expensive to build a home. 

“Especially the builders up in Western New York are concerned it's going to affect them quicker and harder than the rest of the state," said New York State Builders Association Executive Director Mike Fazio. 

Elmendorf said what might be an even bigger issue than the tariffs themselves is the uncertainty surrounding them or what he calls the "tariff hokey pokey." 

"Part of bidding work is trying to figure out what it's going to cost you to build that project," he said. "When you're looking at the idea of tariffs, especially a very uncertain outlook, it's hard to know where you should be in terms of pricing and cost.” 

Fazio said many builders are taking a wait-and-see approach but hopes that trade issues are worked out sooner rather than later with countries like Canada. 

“The housing crisis in New York is really at extreme levels now," he said. "People can't afford housing and people are leaving the state because of the affordability factor. And we just can't have that.” 

Elmendorf adds that if a trade war becomes a long-term slog, it could affect building projects and lead to a scaling project or complete stoppage if costs get too high.